The International Monetary Fund (IMF) decreases the growth estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2019 from 3.3% to 2.7%, according to October’s World Economic Outlook, WEO), Interfax-Ukraine reports.
IMF also worsened the growth forecast for 2020 from 4% to 3.4%, while it improved by the end of the current year – from 3.2% to 3.5%.
The estimate of annual average inflation in 2018 improved by 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) – up to 10.9%, in 2019 – by 0.7 p.p., up to 7.3%.
The forecast of the consumer price growth by late 2018 remained unchanged, while by late 2019 it improved from 6.2% to 6.5%.
The fund also improved the deficit estimate of the current balance of payment account for 2018 – from 3.7% to 3.1% GDP; meanwhile, by 2019, it improved from 3.5% to 3.9% GDP. In five years, the deficit of the balance of payment account is expected to decrease to 3.1% (the increase up to 4% was forecast in April).
IMF experts also reviewed the forecast of unemployment rate in Ukraine: the estimate for 2018 decreased from 9.2% to 9.4%, for 2019 – from 8.8% to 9.2%.
It was previously reported that the World Bank (WB) worsened Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast in 2018 to 3.3% and in 2019 – to 3.5%.
It should be reminded that previously IMF retained the forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018 at 3.2%, but it worsened 2019 forecast to 3.3% (its previous forecast was 4%).
The international credit rating agency Fitch forecast Ukraine’s GDP growth by 3.2% in 2018. Meanwhile, in 2019, the agency forecast growth at 3.7%.
The international rating agency S&P expects for the growth acceleration of the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 up to 3.1% with its slowdown up to 2.9% in 2019-2021.