The probability of the default in Ukraine increased up to 43%, the former official assures, Correspondent.net reports.

In 2017, in terms of currency fluctuations, Ukraine anticipates three scenarios of further developments, two of which will lead the country to the default. Leader of the Party «Successful Country» and Former Minister of Revenues and Duties Alexander Klimenko made such forecast.

Among external factors, affecting the hryvnia rate in 2017, the politician, in particular, called the export proceeds, the necessity of repayment of arrears to lenders (USD 4.5 bln), direct foreign investments.

According to Klimenko, today, the country faces three scenarios, which he figuratively called «Sell Ukraine», «Bankrupt» and «Operation «Rating of Authorities»», and two of them lead to the default.

The first scenario implies the complete fulfillment of IMF requirements – raising the pension age, land sale, liquidation of the simplified taxation system, reduction of the number of state employees etc. In this case, the Fund will allocate the loan to Ukraine. Along with currency proceeds from labor migrants of about USD 3.5 billion, it can keep the rate at 30-32 hryvnias per dollar.

Klimenko assessed the probability of realization of “Bankrupt” scenario at 43%, emphasizing that it refers not to the technical default, but to declaring Ukraine actual bankrupt. The leader of «Successful Ukraine» concedes the realization of the third scenario if the authorities decide to save their ratings.

«Then, they will make a net sale of all gold and currency reserves. In such case, the rate will be approximately the same as it is now – about 28 hryvnias per dollar. But, not for long. It is, in fact, also bankrupt», Klimenko summarized.