The World Bank kept Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast at 3.5% in 2018, WB Lead Economist and Program Leader Faruk Khan said during presentation of a new economic outlook and macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine on Tuesday, Ukrainian News reports.
Khan added that if the necessary reforms are not implemented, then in 2018-2019, the GDP growth may decrease by 2 p.p.
Meanwhile, the office economist Anastacia Golovach noted that the inflation in Ukraine may reach 10% this year.
“According to our estimates, this year, the expenses for labor remuneration will be more than 18% GDP. This is despite the fact that the salaries of teachers, doctors and public employees already reached the pre-crisis value. These fiscal risks are very high, due to which we expect for inflation at 10% this year”, she reported.
Meanwhile, GDP growth forecast for 2019-2020 is kept at 4%.
This year’s inflation is forecast at 9.9% (previous forecast - 7%), in 2019 – 7.3% (previous forecast – 6.5%), and in 2020 – 6.5% (previous forecast – 6%).
This year, the nominal GDP is forecast at UAH 3,428 bln, in 2019 – UAH 3,854 bln, and in 2020 – UAH 4,314 bln.
The import growth is forecast at: in 2018 – 14%, in 2019 – 7.2%, in 2020 – 5.8%.
This year, the export growth is expected at 8%, in 2019 – 6.4%, in 2020 – 5.9%.
This year, the World Bank expects the state budget deficit at 2.5% of GDP, in 2019 – 2.7% of GDP and in 2020 – 2.4% of GDP.
Meanwhile, this year, the state debt is expected at 75.1% of GDP in 2019 – 73.5% of GDP and in 2020 – 68.4% of GDP.
In last October, World Bank forecast Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018 – 3.5%, in 2019 and 2020 – 4% each.
As Ukrainian News reported, in 2017, GDP increased by 2.5%.