The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) believes that currently, the short-term risks for hryvnia exchange rate are the changes in the terms of foreign trade and external payments on public debt, Deputy Governor Dmitry Sologub told during interview with RBC-Ukraine.
"If you look at the dynamics of hryvnia exchange rate and compare it with other countries, this year the hryvnia was one of the strongest currencies. The explanation is simple: we see good terms of trade for Ukraine", he explained.
At the same time, he said, Ukraine still needs a "safety cushion" in the form of a program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which increases reserves, reduces the cost of borrowings for the government and helps insure against deterioration of the terms of trade.
"If we talk about the risks, rather than assess their probability, then the most significant are the changes in the terms of foreign trade and external payments on public debt," Sologub said.
Earlier, the Cabinet forecast the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar for late 2018. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, depending on different scenarios - optimistic or pessimistic - the rate will be between 27 to 30 UAH per dollar.
