The victory of Republican Donald Trump at US elections affected the optimistic expectations on emerging markets; however Russia is an exclusion, RIA News reports quoting The Wall Street Journal.
Until now, emerging markets were the most dynamic players in 2016, but now their position is complicated amid Trump’s anti-globalization rhetoric. After the news about Trump’s victory, MSCI Emerging Markets index decreased by 2.5%, and MSCI Russia index increased by 1.9%, and, besides that, the ruble rose against dollar, the edition reminds.
The risen MSCI Russia index and strengthening the Russian currency happened amid the hopes for lifting Western sanctions from Russia and improvement of relationships between Moscow and Washington. However, even if it does not happen, the expected US protectionism policy will not affect the Russian economy. The Russian economy does not depend on constant capital flow. In addition, the country has the positive balance of current account transactions and the low rate of state debt, according to the article.
Currently, the prospects of Russian economy are improving, and the negative effect from oil price collapses is decreasing. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it will grow, though slowly – nearly by 1%. Nevertheless, such problems, as the overreliance upon sales of raw materials, the demographic situation and small investments, still exist. In addition, as WSJ considers, currently the Russian economy is enough “isolated” and it insures it more against risks, and the improvement of relationships with the USA will give additional opportunities for the growth.
It cannot be ruled out that, in the near future, oil prices can drop again, which will be one of the determining factors for the Russian economy. However, some experts consider that the probable “inflation policy” of Trump will positively impact raw materials prices in general, the edition reports.