Experts predict decline in GDP

In November 2013 the index of purchasing power in the U.S. rose to 57.3, reaching a record level since April 2011. In addition, exports increased, as the new jobs and orders for the production of goods. Experts have recorded the fastest growth of U.S. factories over the last two years. The last six months were the best time in the U.S. industry as the country emerged from the crisis in June 2009, Bloomberg Business Week writes.

Similar results would stipulate economic growth of 3% in the fourth quarter of 2013. However, most experts do not believe the veracity of this prediction. In the last three months of 2013 the country was in a rather unstable situation. According to a recent survey of economists by Bloomberg, GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be 1.8%. The reason for the projected decline in GDP lies in the fact that to date performance of American industry was not high enough. In September, an order for the production of durable good, such as cars and household appliances, fell by 2%.

In addition, many economists believe that a successful third quarter of 2013 shall continue with less successful period in economy. Given that consumer demand in the country is low, companies are not required to purchase additional products to meet customers' needs.

On the other hand, some still believe that the economy is gaining momentum. Joseph Lavorna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, believes GDP will grow by 3.5% in the last quarter. His assumption is based on the belief that growth in the third quarter was the basis for improved economic performance in the next trimester.

Lavorna denies the assertion that accumulation of a large amount of goods in the same quarter draws a negative impact on sales of subsequent period. The relation between the increases in inventory of next quarters is about 75%. According to the economist, an increase in inventories should lead to higher wages and jobs.