The Ministry’s forecast and expectations

“According to the latest statistics: the Ukraine’s GDP in the second quarter of the current year declined by 4.6% as compared to a similar period of 2013, industrial production for 8 months of 2014 fell by 7.8%; the only industry that still shows positive trend is the agricultural sector – growth by 6%. The statistical data already processed on inflation in September show a high inflation rate, it is explained by just another sharper devaluation of hryvnia in August”, said Deputy Head of Macro-Economic Forecasting Maxim Duda at the meeting with the representatives from Morgan Stanley, the press-office of the ministry reports.

In general, in his opinion, the increase in consumer price index stood at 16.2% in September (up to December of the previous year), while prices set by manufacturers grew by 27.4%. As regards expectations of inflation this year, its rate might go up to around 19.5% (from December to December).

Moreover, Maxim Duda reminded that at the end of September the government approved the forecast for 2015. In so doing, 2 basic scenarios plus alternative one were agreed. The first scenario anticipates the GDO growth by 0.3%, according to another prediction - by 2%. Deputy Head accentuated that they have made adjustments and agreed the forecasts with other ministries having some preconditions in place that allow evaluating prospects for 2015 more optimistically. First and foremost is cessation of active hostilities in the east of Ukraine.

“A guess laid in our forecast is anticipation of the GDP growth if military conflict ends, so far as it is the core factor that now affects the country’s economy”, - said Maxim Duda.

He also added that accuracy of a forecast is rather important because it gives grounds to figure out a budget.