Standard & Poor's upgraded long-term and short-term issuer default ratings of Ukraine in foreign currency to «B-/B» from «SD/D»(selective default), the international rating agency said in press-release, RBC-Ukraine (РБК-Украина) reports.
As it is reported, the sovereign rating of Ukraine on long-term and short-term obligations in local currency has been upgraded to «B-/B» from «CCC+/C-».
According to S&P, the rating changed due to the completion of negotiations on restructuring of the external commercial debt of Ukraine.
In addition, the agency analysts pointed out the implementation of Ukrainian governmental reforms, aimed at creation of tax, financial and economic stability and improvement of some external indicators, including the increase of international reserves.
Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's, referring to the data of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, informs that the country managed to restructure USD 15 mln of the external debt by its total cutting by 20%. As a result, the gross needs of Ukraine have reduced by USD 8.5 bn in the future 4 years.
The agency states that Ukraine has one unsettled issue with Russian debt. If Kyiv does not reach agreement with Moscow, S&P considers it possible to maintain Ukraine’s access to the credit support of IMF, Swedish Riksbank, and the People’s Bank of China, with which the National Bank of Ukraine holds negotiations about opening of the credit line for USD 2.4 bn.
S&P forecasts that as per results of 2015 the Ukraine’s real GDP will decrease by about 15%, which is connected with the low level of trust and the violation of financial stability. However, in 2016 the agency considers it possible to have the Ukrainian economy grow by 2% in 2016 (in 2017 – by 3.5% and in 2018 – by 4%), pointing to the signs of economic recovery in the third quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, the experts suppose that the rise in consumer prices will speed up to 55% this year after increase by 12.2% in 2014. At the same time, as per the forecast, in 2016 the inflation will slow to 20%, in 2017 – to 14% and in 2018 – to 9%.
In addition, according to Standard & Poor's, the “stable” forecast indicates that Ukrainian government will continue the implementation of necessary reforms. The rating downgrading is possible in case if Ukraine will not perform obligations under IMF program. ”The escalation of the conflict with Russia also poses potential risk which can lead to downgraded rating”, as reported in the press-release.
