The National Bank expects the slowdown of consumer inflation up to 12% in late 2016 and 8% in late 2017, as it is said in the “inflation report” of the National Bank, Economic Truth reports.
As noted, low global food prices under conditions of limited export capacities, lowering of inflation expectations and weakening of devaluation effects are curbing inflation.
“The raising of administratively regulated tariffs still continues to influence inflation, however this effect will not be such significant as it was in 2015”, - as it is said in the message.
According to the report, the moderate aggregate demand remains the significant factor of disinflation process.
“Though previous NBU evaluations of passage of drop bottom in the 1st half of 2015 proved to be true, the recovery of economic activity is slow. As per results of 2015, the decline in real GDP in 2015 is estimated at around 10.5%”, as it is said in the report.
In 2016 the economy will renew growth as per results of the year, but it will be less significant than it was expected in the previous “Inflation report”.
In addition, the National Bank has reviewed the growth analysis of real GPD in the current year from 2.4% to 1.1%.
“This is based on realization of risk of raw material price drops, about which we warned previously, worsening of expectations regarding global economy growth rate and new restrictions in trade with Russia (a separate thematic box is dedicated to the latter factor in the document). All three factors will lead to further export decrease and increase of deficit of the current account up to USD 2.5 billion (previous forecast – deficit in the amount of USD 1,200,000,000)”, as NBU informs.
The National Bank of Ukraine has reportedly forecast inflation at 44% as per results of 2015.
In November 2015 the State Statistics Service fixed inflation at 2%, after deflation of 1.3% in October.
It should be reminded that previously Hontareva assured that in 2016 the real Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 2.4%, the inflation will be 12%, and the deficit of balance of payments will be insignificant.
