The forecast on GDP growth of 1% and inflation of 14.1% in 2016, announced by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, is the fourth revision by the Cabinet of Ministers of their estimates of main macro parameters, which can lead to mistrust to such figures and serve as a guidemark for business, Adviser of Chairman of Association of Ukrainian Banks Alexei Kuts said to UBR.ua.

According to financial expert’s estimate, the correction by the Cabinet of Ministers of their forecasts in positive and acceptable marks will not cover up the fact of negative results as per results of the year. In particular, the financial expert considers that there will whether GDP decline or zero dynamics. Regarding inflation, there will be higher indicator, if it is not corrected by hand.

“There are many manipulations observed. Let’s take the inflation rate. In spring, the preliminary changes were made to the methodology of estimation of inflation rate, lowering the unit cost of utility services. Because they knew that we will have sharp increase of utility rate in autumn. And in order to scare with inflation rate, they decided to correct this indicator, by reducing the unit cost of utility services. In addition, the inflation on industrial products was and remains high”, Kuts noted.

Assessing the prospects of GDP growth in 2016, the financial expert noted that in his pessimistic estimates he is guided by the worsening of GDP dynamics in the second half of 2016 and the worsening of the situation on the international markets, which can impact even the flagship of Ukrainian economy – agriculture.

“In the first half of year, the growth of 1-1.5% was fixed, but now we see the slippage and worsening of indicators in many sectors. In addition, as there was decline on many export positions, due to price reduction in the world, even on agriculture, there may be zero growth. The prices for metals and iron ore raw materials are also slumping” ”, the financial expert emphasized