The experts are confident that the problem is not about the state debt, but about the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Today, Ukraine is one of three top riskiest countries in terms of the possible default. Meanwhile, the state debt of Ukraine is USD 77 bln that is much less than the largest debts of the world: USA (USD 20 trln) and Japan (USD 11 trln), Segodnya reports.
“The debt-to-GDP ratio is a very important indicator. And taking into account this indicator, Ukraine already overstepped the critical mark. Our 77 bln dollars of the debt is about 84% of GDP. And according to the Methodology of IMF and Budget Code of Ukraine, the critical border is at the level of 60%”, NBU Board member Vitali Lomakovich explained in 2014-2015.
According to Lomakovich, the ratio of state and state-guaranteed debt to budget revenues is also measured. According to IMF methodology, this indicator should not exceed 200%. In Ukraine, it exceeds 300%.
“If we consider top 5 debtors, taking into account the debt-to-GDP ratio, then Japan is the first country, who has a large figure – 239%. However, Japan has only 10% of the debt, nominated in foreign currency. And Ukraine – 70%. And it is a serious criterion of the risk. Ukraine ranks the first in the world in terms of currency debt-to-GDP ratio – 126%. That is why many analytical sites place Ukraine at the first line of riskiness”, Tatiana Unkovskaya, PhD in Economics, Director of the Expert-Analytical Center ‘Optima’, tells.
